On 2 February 2026, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) released an updated analytical report entitled Policy Brief No. 2: “Forecasting refugee return to Ukraine amid ongoing war and uncertainty”. The document examines potential scenarios for the return of Ukrainian refugees in the context of the ongoing armed conflict and a high level of uncertainty.

The report emphasizes that return is unlikely to be rapid or large-scale. Decisions regarding return are made individually and gradually, taking into account a range of factors, including security conditions, access to housing, employment opportunities, and the availability of health care, education, and social services.

UNHCR analysts underline that even in the event of partial stabilization, return movements are expected to be phased and uneven. Families with children, older persons, and individuals who have achieved a certain level of socio-economic integration in host countries tend to adopt a particularly cautious approach, according to the modelling results.

The sustainability of return constitutes a key focus of the report. UNHCR notes that without comprehensive and long-term support — notably in housing reconstruction, infrastructure recovery, job creation, and access to basic services — return may be temporary or result in onward or repeated displacement. The principles of voluntariness, informed decision-making, and the absence of any form of pressure are explicitly reaffirmed.

The report also clarifies that forecasting models are not intended to provide precise numerical predictions. Rather, they serve as tools for strategic planning of public policy, humanitarian response, and recovery efforts. UNHCR calls on governments and international partners to consider multiple scenarios and to prioritize the creation of safe and dignified conditions for return over fixed timelines.

In this context, the return of Ukrainian refugees is framed by the United Nations primarily as a matter of conditions, guarantees, and long-term prospects, rather than a process defined by specific deadlines.

Compiler of the selection: Anastasiia Malyshenko